On September 2, 2017, North Korea conducted its sixth and most powerful nuclear test. Experts say this was an advanced hydrogen bomb. It has has already launched eighteen missile tests this year, The last ballistic missile test flew over Japan. The war scenario will occur similar to this.
The USA sees another missile launch now or in the future. The USA shoots the missile down early in flight. North Korea retaliates, and escalates tensions into open warfare.
The DMZ has been weakened considerably over the last 50 years. The initial invasion of South Korea with conventional weapons will favor North Korea. The USA has troops in Afghanistan and Iraq. The USA would not be able to counter attack in a week. It would take a month. The South Korean army would be routed initially. The push would prohibit USA use of nukes since the nukes would be in North Korean on smaller mobile platforms.
Steve Bannon, formerly the president’s chief strategist, stated that the US cannot attack North Korea because of the risk of retaliation against South Korea that will kill millions.
So the war stays conventional.
North Korea has 1.2 million troops in its various military branches. South Korea has about 600,000. The surprise attack favors a sharp penetration during the first week. Again the US aircraft can inflict damage but there is not enough in the DMZ to stall the North Korea advance. There are 25 million people in South Korea within artillery range of North Korea. North Korea also has chemical and biological weapons.
South Korea was invaded on June 25 1950. North Koreans advanced through the country rapidly, even after American troops were drafted in from bases in Japan, and the war seemed all but over. Then in September General MacArthur landed two divisions in the enemy’s rear and North Korea was forced to flee amid heavy aerial bombardment. The USA lost more than thirty thousand troops in battle. South Korea lost almost a quarter million troops and a million civilians.
What if the South Korea government surrenders in the first month? What then? It begins a tough war into Korea for the USA. The will is not there.
U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis told reporters: “We are never out of diplomatic solutions.”
Would the USA have attacked Saddam Hussein of Iraq and Muammer Gaddafi of Libya if they had nukes? History would say no.
The North occupying South Korea could use nukes on the invading USA army. That threat alone would give the USA pause.
The prevention of this Second war requires basic steps.
Trump has repeatedly tried and failed to persuade Beijing to exert more economic pressure on North Korea, threatening that the US will take unilateral military action if China fails to force Mr Kim into line. China has sought to placate Mr Trump by toughening sanctions on Pyongyang. But the Chinese also have to consider how Mr Kim might react if he is forced into a corner. The risk that the North Korean leader will use nuclear weapons first will surely rise if he is faced with the prospect of the collapse of his own regime — and his own certain death.