North Korean Storm Arising?

There are numerous books on the North Korean Invasion of the south. Larry Bond’s REd Pheonix is a well written on. 

Red Phoenix is set in the early 1990s. North Korea’s elderly Great Leader, Kim Il-Sung, is still alive but clearly frail. Day to day control of this isolated and paranoid Stalinist nation is now in the hands of Kim’s ambitious son, Kim Jong-Il, the Dear Leader. Ruthless and mercurial, the younger Kim seeks to surpass his father and accomplish what the old man had failed to do in the 1950s: the reunification of the Communist North and the capitalist South.

At first, Kim’s plans almost become undone when a team of South Korean and American soldiers discovers a tunnel dug under the DMZ by North Korean combat engineers. In it is a vast stockpile of weapons, ammunition, and even Soviet-made tanks, enough for a battalion of invaders. But events elsewhere, including the office of a Michigan Congressman and the Interior Ministry in Seoul, soon create a perfect convergence of events that enables North Korea’s nefarious Dear Leader to mobilize his forces and launch a lightning invasion of South Korea.

South Korean President Park Geun-hye was just sworn in last month and one of her most pressing concerns is how to deal with the North Korean leader who continues to threaten open war with the South and its military ally, the United States. 

China was also upset with North Korea’s stubbornness on its nuclear program and Beijing has taken tougher measures against its ally by endorsing a UN resolution to condemn and to take tougher economic sanctions against the North.

China and Japan are facing an escalation of military confrontation over the sovereignty rights on Diaoyu Island (the name of the island according to the Chinese) or Senkaku Island, according to Japan’s map. China has insisted that it would not hesitate to use maximum military means, while many people in Japan feel they should not allow China to behave as it likes. Domestic pressure on both sides can trigger direct military confrontation although both sides realize that they will pay a very high price when they cannot maintain the conflict at a manageable level.

First question is what would provoke a North Korean Attack. 

Isolation begets delusions. Iraq did not believe the US would defend Kuwait. Libya did not believe NATO would intervene being other wars. North Korean attack would force a China defense in their mind. 

Would the US intervene if China was in involved?

Question 2 What would North Korea gain?

The US attack would damage the buildings in an already poor country. The World helped rebuild Iraq, Afghanistan, Germany, Japan. An odd logic would be that North Korea would get aid like they did.

 

Question 3 Why would China support North Korea?

China communist party is a growing superpower in Asia with its military might it could crush neighboring countries in hours. China’s growing military capability attracted a great deal of attention and causes fear to its neighboring countries, although details about China’s plan for their military expansion is not clear,but it could possibly be for a plan to take Taiwan back?. China is modernizing its forces and increasing defense spending, the prospective improvements in overall military capability need to be set against the very low-technology starting point of China’s armed forces.

Recent activities in South China Sea fears the U.S for a possible naval confrontation when it is clear that China has new underground nuclear submarine base close to vital sea lanes in Southeast Asia, which could hold up to 20 submarines, including a new type of nuclear ballistic missile submarine, and future Chinese aircraft carrier battle groups. The US military dominates most strategic areas in the pacific with the China’s naval expansion in Asia it challenge the US military might.

The United States provided diplomatic assistance to Taiwan and if ever a War between China communist party and Taiwan could happen, you cannot expect that America will just watch the show. But America would do something to bring that peace in Taiwan back again even if it requires them to fire their missiles. America has many allies in the pacific, Japan could possibly provide blockade to China’s supply ships and navy ships and submarines; and The Philippines and South Korea could be their Military bases. But, does China has no idea about these countries that possibly would interfere their plans for Taiwan? Of-course China knows everything, China for sure will clear these obstacles first ( Philippines, Japan and South Korea). 

 Question 4 Who would defend the Philippines or Japan against China?

The US and Australia would have to defend the countries. It would be a conventional war vs. nuclear. The US does not have a credible preplanned defense against this scenario. China could disable Okinawa faster than the US can react. A scenario where North Korea attack South Korea with China going after the Okinawa defenses overwhelms the US forces similar to Japan’s attack on the US held Philippines in WWII.

Question 5 Would the US attack China for South Korea if the war was conventional?

Many say yes, but the reality is a long war with no conquering China in the first year. Appeasement is a strong possibility. Look at the Appeasement policies of Germany in World War 2. They marched into Austria without firing a shot. 

Summary: The US policy of flattening North Korea is based on a neutral China. In the Korean war, the US did not expect a million of Chinese to come across the river. I think they have underestimated the China Dragon again. 

 

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